Macau’s VIP GGR tracking at 30% decline in November despite high hold

Macau’s gross gaming revenue is tracking at a year-on-year decline of up to 13%, according to analysts at brokerage Sanford C Bernstein, hindered by continued softness in the VIP segment.

According to Bernstein’s weekly channel check, issued late Monday, VIP volume is estimated to have fallen 30% compared with November 2018, despite a slightly higher than normal hold rate. Mass is estimated to be up by “high single digits.”

Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu have total GGR for Macau’s operators at around MOP$17.8 billion through the first 24 days of November at an average daily rate of MOP$742 million. That figure represents an 11% year-on-year decline and is 13% lower than October.

Bernstein last week revised down its 4Q19 earnings estimates for Macau, with quarterly GGR now tipped to fall by 7% as opposed to earlier estimates of a 5% decline.

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